Heading into tonight’s 89th NFL draft, speculation abounds regarding the various moves teams might execute. Among these maneuvers are the potential trades anticipated during Round 1, particularly within the top ten picks. Similar to past drafts, first-round trades within this bracket come with a cost. Teams must weigh their options carefully, considering the loss of future draft assets against the potential impact of a single player’s performance in their rookie season, something that could jeopardize a general manager’s tenure.
While it’s unlikely that many trades will occur tonight, if any do occur, the Minnesota Vikings are poised to make a move to secure their next starting quarterback.
In nearly every mock draft scenario considering trade-ups, the Vikings emerge as the likeliest candidates for moving up to get a quarterback. This could involve a trade with teams like the Patriots at #3, the Cardinals at #4, or even the Chargers at #5. Following Kirk Cousins’ departure to Atlanta last month, the Vikings are in urgent need of a high-caliber quarterback capable of making an immediate impact in the NFL. Waiting until their 11th and 23rd first-round picks would likely result in missing out on the top three quarterbacks—typically Daniels, Williams, and Maye—who are expected to be off the board by then. Even the fourth-ranked quarterback in this class, JJ McCarthy, is unlikely to fall to them. This leaves the Vikings with limited options, potentially only Washington’s Michael Penix or Oregon’s Bo Nix, though even these prospects are not guaranteed to be available without a trade up.
Minnesota stands out as the most probable candidate for a trade-up scenario primarily due to their possession of two first-round picks. They have the flexibility to either trade their 11th pick while retaining the 23rd pick as a safety net, or more plausibly, they may opt to package both first-round selections to secure their quarterback.
According to reports, the trade-up target could likely be Arizona’s 4th overall pick, given the apparent disinterest from both the Commanders and the Patriots in trading their first-round picks. This situation could potentially leave QB JJ McCarthy available for the Vikings to pursue.
However, the Vikings find themselves at a crucial point where they must carefully evaluate whether a player like McCarthy justifies giving up their draft picks. Such a transaction would presumably entail sacrificing three overall first-round picks—the 11th and the 23rd this year, along with a first-rounder in the 2025 draft. The notion of parting with such valuable draft capital for a player of McCarthy’s caliber prompts legitimate concerns about this move.
However, the Vikings might find themselves with limited options. Avoiding pure speculation, it’s evident that Justin Jefferson desires a quality quarterback to compliment him. If the Vikings end up fielding quarterbacks like Mullens or Darnold, or even prospects like Bo Nix or Michael Penix, Jefferson may seek to depart from Minnesota.
Ultimately, Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could rationalize investing in the development of a high-cost rookie QB acquired through a trade, such as McCarthy. However, it’s unlikely that he could justify rookies like Nix or Penix, and certainly not Darnold and Mullens, given their track records.
In light of this, the Vikings are faced with two options:
(a) They could opt to trade up, likely targeting McCarthy, for three first-round picks. This move would enable them to mold McCarthy into their next franchise quarterback. However, it would come at the expense of their ability to surround him with additional talent.
Or,
(b) They could stay put and focus on drafting other valuable players for their team. At #11, they could select the best available QB on the board and add another first-round talent at #23. While this approach would allow them to maximize their draft capital, they may not secure a strong QB for the 2024-25 season.
Following tonight’s events, we will gain a clearer insight into the trajectory of the Vikings as a franchise. Should they prioritize immediate results, a trade for a high-caliber QB seems imminent. Conversely, if they opt for a long-term approach, preserving as many picks as possible becomes crucial, allowing them to bolster their roster with positional talent to offset potential shortcomings in quarterback performance next season.
Considering Minnesota’s already solid roster, neglecting to secure a valuable QB now could hamper their chances of success in the coming years, especially given the consensus that next year’s QB class isn’t as promising as the current one. My prediction is that the Vikings will indeed trade up tonight, albeit at the cost of future draft capital, signaling a proactive move towards developing a franchise QB. However, failing to execute a trade could imply their selection of a lower-caliber QB, with subsequent picks utilized to compliment him as effectively as possible.
Photo Credits: The Athletic
