The first round of the NFL draft in a typical draft ends up yielding the most high level prospects. Some teams walk away with a new star receiver, or a lockdown cornerback, or even a linebacker who hits so hard a player’s soul will leave their body after the snap. Typically, no matter how talented a prospect may be, they tend to be subject to the NFL’s positional value hierarchy, therefore always making a Quarterback (QB) more valuable or desirable than them. Even if the QB is not a better prospect. The fact of the game is that there is 1 QB, and every team is desperate to have a good one. So much so that NFL teams will happily compromise at bringing in talent at other arguably equally important positions, in order to draft a QB in the first round or pay an average QB an exorbitant salary to keep them happy.
With that high value of QBs comes a high trade price tag, making NFL teams a lot more willing to reach on QBs who may not be pro-ready prospects, and put the pressures and spotlights of a first-round pick on their shoulders. There have been 29* QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft dating back to the 2015 draft, and there are rumors as many as 6 more could be drafted this year. Unfortunately, a ton of prospects can’t handle the spotlight, pressures and intrigue that come with that awkward picture with Roger Goodell. 12/29 of these QBs are either backups, or no longer in the league. Considering that it’s been 9 years since 2015, most of the QBs drafted then are around 30-32 that’s not very old for a QB these days. There are even QBs here under 25 years old showcasing a serious lack of longevity in a lot of these selections. 7/12 of those players who are backups or no longer in the league were top 3 picks in the draft. This is a bit worrying, particularly considering that most of the time it is inconceivable for people to imagine the top 3 picks in a draft busting. But when it comes to QBs being drafted there it seems as though there is a worrying trend, this year’s draft is projected to have QBs going in each of the top 3 picks. Most fans and analysts alike seem set in stone that all 3 of these prospects will be major stars, but once upon a time so was every player on this list.
In terms of accolades 16/29 of these QBs made the pro-bowl at least once in their career, 3 made an all-pro team. Personally, since the inclusion of Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley to the pro-bowl, and Rookie QB Mac Jones (also on this list) as what felt like the 10th alternate, the pro-bowl has lost all credibility to me. For the sake of this list it is still considered an accolade so I included it. 3 quarterbacks making the all-pro team bodes much better, the three are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. 2 of the QBs are MVP winners combining for 4 MVPs, Jackson and Mahomes have won 2 a-piece so they are carrying this statistical category.
I wanted to look at a passing accolade and I settled at the 20 passing touchdown benchmark, regardless of what archetype a QB encompasses (Scrambler, Pocket Passer, Strong Arm etc.). The expectation is in today’s league that your QB passes for at least 20 touchdowns in a season, 13/29 of these QBs have never passed for 20 or more touchdowns in a season. That’s almost half of the eligible drafted QBs who when given a starters’ role, don’t seem like they can do enough to propel and carry an offense. Typically that’s the expected job description for a first-round graded QB.
“Enough of these individual accolades, football is a team sport, yeah our guy doesn’t throw for 50 touchdowns but he does what’s best for the team,” Your Cousin From New York who switches between supporting the Jets and the Giants and may or may not be referring to Eli Manning.
I agree with your cousin, let’s look at team success. 19/29 of these QBs have led their team to the playoffs while starting. Considering most QBs are taken in the higher half of the first round, typically by teams who missed the playoffs, this is an impressive stat showcasing the turnaround of a franchise. Only 4 of these QBs made a Superbowl appearance as a starter, and frankly considering Foles magic, Carson Wentz may not deserve this distinction. Leaving only one of these QBs having won a Superbowl the magical Patrick Mahomes.
50% of NFL teams are projected to be sending out a QB drafted in the data range. That particular statistic bodes well for taking a quarterback, but I think it is important for NFL teams to not reach just based on positional value. There are a few QBs in most drafts that you watch change the game in college and it makes sense to take in the first round. There are other guys that frankly are not as good or impactful, a lot of whom have red flags people can see from a mile away. But teams ignore them every single year because every team is desperate for a QB.
In this year’s draft I urge NFL teams to show some caution. The top 3 guys are clear cut, first-round QBs, JJ McCarthy was viewed as a 3rd round pick 2 months ago now he is being mocked in the top 10. Similar phenomena are happening with Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr and these happen every year, as when a team is without a clear cut starting QB they get nervous and anxious to pick one ASAP. Unbeknownst to many NFL teams late round QBs work out too, and taking a QB early won’t magically make him better, if anything that spotlight makes them worse. Not only will some NFL teams be disappointed by the QB they will likely reach on, but the player’s career could also be ruined. Take caution NFL teams, remember Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, and even Gardener Minshew. Save your pick, and save the player’s career.
End Note*Dwyane Haskins was counted in the number of QBs drafted but out of respect for him tragically losing his life at such a young age, we chose to exempt him from all the other statistics. The link attached leads to the Haskins Foundation dedicated to helping the next generation in receiving preparation to thrive as an adult. Please consider donating if you can. https://www.haskinsfamilyfoundation.com/support-us
