Helmet scouting is the most common form of scouting. Most sports fans will fall victim to this type of scouting at some point throughout the year. Helmet scouting is when a player is judged based on the team they play for, the conference they play in, or the competition they play against. This can create a bias against a player, for better or worse. For instance, a QB from Ohio State has “historically” not produced in the NFL. A WR from Mississippi Valley State “historically” does not have a successful career in the NFL. A team from the SEC “historically” has a better chance of winning a national championship. Yet, Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud has taken the league by storm after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The former Mississippi Valley State WR, Jerry Rice, is considered to be the best WR of all time, and the 2024 national champions, the Michigan Wolverines, won while playing in the BIG 10 conference. Even with these anomalies, the question still remains: does helmet scouting hold merit in evaluating a player?
Each prospect has its own pros and cons. For some people, this can be hard to comprehend. The human mind tends to pick up patterns. Picking up patterns can allow someone to subconsciously group certain subjects together. In the case of football, just having certain general similarities can make or break how the general public will perceive a player. Caleb
Williams was crowned the 1st pick of the 2024 NFL Draft as soon as he entered the Red River Showdown in 2021. Ever since, he has been through ups and downs, on and off the field, while being judged along the way. Most recently, even generational QBs have fallen victim to helmet scouting. Historically, USC QBs have seldom worked out in the NFL. Even though they have produced the most NFL QBs (17), only 1 QB has had a notable career in the NFL, 2003 1st overall pick Carson Palmer. This had led the general public to dismiss QBs being drafted out of USC, due to their very poor success rate. Yet, comparing Caleb Williams to Sam Darnold could not be any further from reality. While both possessed elite physical traits while at USC, what separates Caleb is him playing for Lincoln Riley’s “Air Raid” offense that has featured the likes of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts. Darnold played for Clay Helton, who ran a simple offense that incorporated half-field reads with routes that took longer to develop. Darnold was also recruited before the hire of Kliff Kingsbury, and Kliff has been known to prefer QBs similar to Caleb’s playstyle rather than Darnold’s. These are two different QBs being judged as if they were similar prospects. The same could also be said for North Carolina QB Drake Maye, who at times has been likened to Mitchell Trubisky and Daniel Jones. The similarities between Maye and these QBs, are that they are all on the bigger side, play QB, and played in the ACC. The similarities end there, with Maye having a far better arm, better accuracy, worse mechanics, a north-to-south run
style, and a better understanding of how to read defensive coverages. Even though both Maye and Trubisky played for UNC, Maye throws with a ball with more velocity while Trubisky throws with more touch. Maye throws more with his upper body due to his poor lower half mechanics, while Trubisky’s quick release and better lower half mechanics make up for his arm strength. Even comparing late breakout LSU Heisman winners Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels couldn’t be more different, with Burrow throwing with elite anticipation while Daniels waits for his receivers to get open. Burrow has virtually no mobility outside the pocket, while Daniels has exceptional ability past the LOS. Burrow quickly identifies pressure, playing at his best with his quick release under pressure, while Daniels looks to move outside the pocket as quickly as he can under pressure. No matter how similar these QBs may seem on paper, the film always will say otherwise.
Another major counterpoint to helmet scouting has to do with how the top talent of each position group is perceived in college football. A very common debate between college football fans is about what university produces the best talent at each position. LSU and Ohio State have always been considered when talking about which college historically has the best WRs in football. LSU has Malik Nabers, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. Ohio State has Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave. Yet, LSU had Kayshon Boutte, Craig Davis, and
Michael Clayton, all had promising futures that didn’t end as well as they should have. Ohio State had Devin Smith, Parris Campbell, and Anthony Gonzalez, with none of them reaching their supposed potential. If there was a foolproof way to scout and develop a position, every NFL team would take them as soon as possible in the draft. The best QB in the NFL played at Texas Tech. The best RB in the NFL played at Stanford. The best WR during the 2023 season was drafted out of West Alabama. Talented football players come from all walks of life, it doesn’t matter what they look like or where they are from. How a player fits with a team and how hard they work is what correlates with success, not what college they played for. That’s why the 177th overall WR from BYU, Puka Nacua, took over the league by storm with almost 1,500 yards when he was drafted by the Rams. He could do this because of a system that utilized his strengths, particularly in routes with sharp breaks such as digs and outbreakers. The 1st WR off the board at pick 20, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, caught 63 of his 93 targets for just 628 yards, and the system he played in did not help at all. The Seahawks run a very conservative offense where Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the 3rd best option, while he played in an offense that would not target him down the field, specifically over the middle of the field. Even though both players are very talented, one is playing better strictly due to his potential being tapped in. Certain situations will allow for the potential to be reached sooner rather than later. Seeing Baker Mayfield go from being the 1st overall pick, to
being proclaimed a bust by analysts, to then throwing for 4,000 yards with almost 30 touchdowns, reinforces the idea that all of these guys are amazing players, they just need to be in the right situation.
Evaluating a player based on anything other than them will always lead to poor results. There are definitely situations where this could be helpful, but ONLY in moderation. A QB who has only performed well with all-pro caliber guys around them
will have a red flag. A RB who can produce behind a poor offensive line will be green-flagged. These particular situations could be possible circumstances that they will face in the NFL, but that does not mean these prospects are just limited to their surroundings. It doesn’t matter what color jersey a prospect has, who he may physically resemble, or what his playstyle is, as long as he can fit a role on an NFL team he will be drafted regardless. There are people who try to quantify a college prospect’s value based on how their TEAM performed or how their stats look in the box score. What they always fail to realize is Mahomes went 13-19 at Texas Tech where his defense gave up 43 ppg. John Elway was 20-23 at Stanford, yet broke every passing record he could at the time. Caleb Williams just finished his college career at 23-10 but has received criticism for never winning a bowl game or playoff game. Meanwhile, he did this with USC’s defense being ranked 117th! Dismissing any of these players and blaming them because they failed to reach a team
goal is ignorant. A similar point about the strength of their conference is also brought up when evaluating a prospect. But more exposure does not mean that one prospect is more talented than another. Just because a player went to Alabama, does not mean they are better than a player from Toledo. Different factors can play into where a player goes to college; grades, lack of high school film and exposure, work ethic, being homesick, personal issues, etc. That’s why Josh Allen, a 0-star recruit out of high school who had to beg for a chance, ended up at Wyoming. The same Josh Allen, who is now one of the best players in the NFL, making a case to one day be put in the NFL Hall of Fame. If everyone looked at him for what he was; a gunslinger with poor mechanics coming from a school not known to produce NFL talent, we would have never seen him play in the NFL. Judging a book by its cover is not fair to do in any facet of life, especially football. Just because a prospect was not asked to do something, does not mean they can’t do it. Watching a player do well during their pro day does not automatically make them Zach Wilson. When a prospect wins the Heisman, that doesn’t give them Lamar Jackson’s potential. If a college program produces a bad NFL player, that does not mean they can NEVER have a good player at that position again. If a college program produces good NFL talent at a particular position, it doesn’t mean every player at that position will meet expectations. There are no absolutes when it comes to football, and while helmet scouting is a fast and easy way to reach conclusions, it has no merit when it comes to accurately evaluating a prospect.
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