The 2022-23 NBA season saw the most scoring per game since 1970, with the league average being a whopping 114.7 points per game. The league has shown no signs of slowing down in the 2023-24 year, with the league average in points per game sitting at 114.3 as of April 2024. Many fans, players, coaches, and executives alike have expressed displeasure at a perceived lack of defense in the modern NBA. With the offensive talent across the association being arguably as elite as it’s ever been, the NBA is posed with a difficult challenge in slowing down this league-wide scoring rampage
On January 26th, the NBA was on the last day of a five-day scoring peak, with the league averaging 117.3 points per game over this stretch. Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic both added 70+ point performances during this window that preceded the All-Star break.
However, since the All-Star break, scoring has suddenly dropped across the league. The NBA high five game stretch before the break was followed by a five game season low. At the end of February, only 109 points per game were being scored across the league. When looking for a reason behind this sudden drop, a drastic decrease in defensive foul calls has been pointed out.
Free throw attempts dropped 10% in January and February, and foul calls per 100 possessions have dropped by 20% since earlier in the season. While there have been nothing official from any executives or officials to to fully prove that this is an intentional change, the statistics seem too prevalent to ignore. If this truly is a conscious effort by the league, this will likely impact a handful of teams as the regular season wraps up and the playoffs get underway.
Let’s look at the Magic as an example. Orlando has exceeded expectations and climbed their way to the third seed in the Eastern Conference as of the first week of April. They have done this by attacking the paint and getting to the line frequently, leading the league with 24.5 free throw attempts per game. A deliberate decrease in defensive foul calls may hinder Orlando’s offensive strategy, causing them to get to the line much less frequently.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Denver Nuggets are currently second to last in the NBA in free throw attempts, getting only 20 shots from the charity stripe each contest. Denver is a squad that runs an offense revolving primarily around star center Nikola Jokic using his outstanding playmaking skills to locate perimeter shooters. Another facet of Jokic’s game is his craftiness in the post and his ability to take and make shots quickly before his defender has time to contest.
This new way of officiating plays directly to Denver’s strengths. The Nuggets are not a team that looks to seek contact inside, rather work the ball around the perimeter or play through an inside-out philosophy with Nikola Jokic.
With the playoffs rapidly approaching first round upsets could be more frequent than we’ve ever seen due to this decrease in foul calls. For some teams, fewer chances at the line could completely alter their offensive philosophy, and last minute strategic changes may not be enough to save them from an early exit. For others, more leniency on the defensive end could be the key for an extremely deep run this postseason.
Photo Credits: Silver Pick and Roll
