The Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic are locked at 88 in Game 1 of the 2009 NBA finals. Kobe Bryant dribbles patiently at the top of the key with 15 seconds to go in the 4th quarter. In his first finals appearance without Shaquille O’Neal by his side, the Black Mamba is eager to start the series off right. With 5 seconds to go, Bryant begins to walk his defender Hedo Turkoglu towards the middle of the floor. Magic shooting guard JJ Reddick immediately springs into action, leaving his defensive assignment Trevor Ariza open on the opposite side of the court. Kobe is forced to change direction but manages to squeak by Hedo Turkoglu with a tight crossover. Suddenly, as if connected on an axis, the Orlando Magic defense rotates to swarm Kobe into a perfectly executed triple team. Kobe’s teammate Lamar Odom is just 10 feet away behind the 3-point line in the corner, clapping his hands incessantly, calling for the ball. Kobe only sees the basket. Surrounded by bodies, and outstretched arms, he stops on a dime to ascend into his jump shot. The ball was stuffed from behind by Turkoglu, who had been trailing the play. Kobe cannot regain control and the Lakers never get a shot to the rim.
At the time, General Managers and players alike would have agreed with Kobe Bryant’s decision to ignore his open teammates and take matters into his own hands. That year, and nearly every year dating back to 2002, Kobe was voted to take the final shot on their team by the NBA’s front office. In 2006, he received 79% of the first-place votes. After all, Kobe’s in-and-out crossover to beat the buzzer against the Suns in the 2006 playoffs was still fresh in their minds. And how could anyone forget his acrobatic one-footed bank shot over D-Wade at the buzzer in the 2009 regular season game against the Heat? These crystal-clear images, and several more just like them, are the driving forces in perpetuating the narrative that Kobe Bryant is indeed, the “King of Clutch.” This concept, called confirmation bias, guides the populous to favor information that confirms their beliefs. In this case, people tout Kobe Bryant as a clutch shooter because they remember his biggest shots. While he has certainly had his fair share of game-winners and buzzers beaters, Kobe is about as pedestrian as they come when it comes to “winning time.”
The NBA defines clutch time as the last five minutes of the game when the point differential between teams is 5 points or fewer. While these moments are important to consider, they hardly capture what basketball fans know to be clutch. A more suitable algorithm belongs to Mike Beouy, a researcher who constructed a formula that incorporates both positive and negative game actions and their effects on win probability. For example, Beouy’s calculation compares a 3-point score in the first quarter or “garbage time,” to that same field goal in the final seconds of a close game, therefore affecting a player’s clutch impact. As a regular-season performer, Kobe Bryant fared quite well in clutch moments but was by no means at the top of the list. That spot was secured by Anthony Davis, surprisingly. Using the same formula, Kobe’s playoff numbers were not as exemplary. He has the 2nd most attempted clutch shots in the playoffs but is painstakingly average when it comes to made field goals, shooting a notch under 40%.
Another aspect of Beouy’s formula that is particularly important in evaluating clutch players is that it encompasses more than just made shots. He assigns values to actions based on their impact on the game. For example, Lebron James’s block on Iguodala in game 7 of the 2016 NBA finals changed the complexion of the last 2 minutes but was obviously not as impactful as Kyrie’s step-back jumper, therefore it is assigned a lesser value. On this list of average win probability percentages in the playoffs, Kobe did not even crack the top 15.
With studies like Beouy’s belittling NBA legends like Kobe Bryant’s efficacy in the clutch, why do stars keep shooting? There must be a better strategy. In his book The Last Season, Phil Jackson gave some insight, specifically on Kobe’s obsession with controlling the clutch moment saying, “I sometimes think Kobe is so addicted to being in control that he would rather shoot the ball when guarded, or even double-teamed, than dish it to an open teammate. “He is saying to himself: how can he trust anyone else?” Hell, there are plenty of examples in NBA playoff history alone, of role players stepping up to make big shots. Remember Steve Kerr or John Paxson hitting arguably the biggest shots of the 93’ and 97’ NBA finals? No article can be written on clutch shooting without mentioning Robert Horry. Phil Jackson himself, lived through these moments. He surely accounted for a role player’s ability to come through in crunch time. Revisiting his book, he recounts his approach in the clutch as Lakers head coach, remembering numerous attempts to draw up a final play, only to watch Kobe force a wild shot on his own. Sounds personal, but maybe that is because it might be.
A Robert Horry quote may give some understanding as to why NBA stars are so adamant about taking over in the clutch, not just Kobe. After hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer against the Kings in the 2005 Western Conference finals, he said, “If I hit it, we win; if I miss, y’all are going to blame the stars for losing the game anyway. There’s no pressure on me.” It seems that the stars are never going to evade judgment no matter what they do. How can Kobe Bryant entrust his legacy as “the next Michael Jordan,” in the hands of a role player? It’s just not as simple as making the right basketball play. It doesn’t take much digging to see what the sports media world has done to Lebron. King James still shrugs off the media’s sweeping claims that he shies away from the moment, despite being one of the most clutch players in the past 20 years, statistically.
It certainly seems that basketball pundits and fans are going to see and say what they want when it comes to stars exhibiting a “clutch gene.” Just look at how often Lebron and Kobe are compared in the clutch. The notion that some players have it, while others do not, is a lazy resolution in diagnosing the meaning of clutch. ESPN and other media outlets love to share Lebron caving against the Mavericks in his first finals appearance with the Heat, or how Ray Allen saved Lebron’s career with his game-tying shot in 2013. A player like Robert Horry has been put on a pedestal for his clutch shooting, even though he barely shot 35% from three in his playoff career. Other careers have been ruined because of the power and pressure to be clutch, like in the curious case of Nick Anderson. His career as a reliable scorer took a complete downward spiral after missing 4 FT’s in a row during the 95’ NBA finals against the Houston Rockets (You can find the entire game on YouTube). In fact, the spirit of those moments affected him so greatly that the following year he shot just 40% from the line despite having maintained a 70% free throw average for his career beforehand. In a tournament game in 8th grade, I even beat the buzzer with a 1-foot opposite-handed slingshot that managed to bank in. Just seconds before the ball was inbounded, I had been shaking like a leaf.
The misuse of describing someone as clutch and someone else as not implies a misunderstanding of each play’s impact and connection to winning. It indicates that the game is won on a buzzer-beater and not a collection of plays leading up to the big shot. Yes, Ray Allen (the actual King of Clutch playoff shooting. According to Beouy’s Clutch Formula he shot over 68% eFG going 20 for 29) did hit the most important shot in 2013, but it was not the only thing that impacted the score. Without Chris Bosh maintaining a great position for an offensive rebound, Allen would never have had a shot in the first place. Just the possession before, Lebron had just hit a three-pointer to bring his team within 2. Dwayne Wade too made his mark on the final moments of the game, keeping a loose ball alive to allow for the James 3-point attempt. Every play matters. And while every player may not be anointed as clutch, anyone can grasp its power. It is not a rare stone, only attainable to some but not others. It is plentiful, and the only true prerequisite, in making a big play with the game on the line is a desire and focus on winning.
Image Cred: statathlon.com
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