What do we expect for the upcoming NFL draft quarterback-wise, and are teams too desperate for this year to turn things around??
Ah, yes. The thrill of the NFL offseason. With the initial excitement of the first wave of free agency coming to an end, many teams are beginning to turn their focus to the next big event of the offseason: the 2024 NFL draft. Lots of teams have lots of question marks in their roster that need to be answered, and they are hoping that this draft will at least help fill some of those holes.
This year’s draft class is one of the more interesting ones. While there are many superstar talents at multiple positions and notable headlines from star players, such as Caleb Williams’ denial to participate in the combine, Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 40-yard dash, and the sudden draft stock rise of JJ McCarthy, there just aren’t as many superstars as there have been in past years. Either that or this draft class doesn’t seem to have the same amount of hype as previous years.
Perhaps one explanation for my skepticism may come in the quarterback class. This year’s quarterback class contains multiple names, such as USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and UNC’s Drake Maye. Williams, as stated before, seems to love having the draft attention surrounding him, as he carries a dangerous confidence in interviews that borderlines arrogance, telling people to watch his film or saying all 32 teams wish they could draft him. The last time a quarterback class was hyped up this much was the 2021 class, with names such as Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson discussed as the top two QBs of the draft. Other notable QBs from this draft include Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance. While Lawrence has panned out well in Jacksonville as a Pro-Bowl caliber starter hoping to take his team to the promised land, the other QBs are not projected to be the start of their clubs this upcoming season. This has led me to believe that sports analysis is erring on the side of caution because they want to avoid looking silly as they did predict the 2021 class.
However, I may be wrong, as I have been in the past regarding drafts. I, like a few other people, believed that Trevor Lawrence was a special talent that was going to be laid to waste in Jacksonville due to poor support staff and poor leadership. However, I tip my cap to Jacksonville for turning things around. I also had high hopes for Mac Jones after year 1, but unfortunately, his tenure in New England has come to a disappointing end.
Just because there isn’t as much hype around this year’s class doesn’t mean that teams will not be looking for a quarterback. The Bears recently traded Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a deal that left me stunned when I first read it. Fields started to find some stride in Chicago, turning in a decent campaign. On the other hand, the Bears seemed like they wanted a fresh start, as they shipped him off for draft picks and considerations. With the Bears having the number 1 pick in the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if they chose Caleb Williams.
Regarding which quarterback goes second overall, though, is a much different story. The Washington Commanders currently own the second overall pick, with the New England Patriots picking third. Both team’s starting quarterbacks, Mac Jones, and Sam Howell were shipped off to other locations, Jones heading home to Jacksonville to join Trevor Lawrence and Sam Howell heading to Seattle. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye each have their ups and downs, but one question that I have is which team drafts Drake Maye. There is no doubt about Drake Maye’s athletic ability whatsoever; the kid can play ball. However, I feel like his stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. Maye plays for UNC, a football program in the ACC conference. The only notable ACC teams are Florida State, and some programs that are decent at football are a watered down Clemson and the scrappy Boston College Eagles. Daniels plays at LSU, part of the ever-loaded SEC conference, full of powerhouses such as Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, just to name a few. Daniels had the best year of his long college tenure at LSU, where he racked up 50 total touchdowns, and he proved that he can ball out with some of the best. However, this isn’t to say that I think Drake Maye is a bust. I just believe that Jayden Daniels will have an easier time adjusting to the level of play in the NFL.
Another reason why I have a slight skepticism for Drake Maye is the quarterback who suited up at Chapel Hill before him, Sam Howell. Howell played just a total of 18 games for the Commanders before being shipped off to the West. Howell had a very bipolar season in 2023, as he went from the passing yards leader to the interceptions leader. The offense lived or died by Howell’s performance, and most of the time, they died. It would be incorrect of me to judge Maye just because of the school he played for, as playing Division 1 football, in general, is a great feat, but I do just want to point that out.
A third factor that can lead to a team’s ability to mold their rookie quarterback can be the presence of a seasoned veteran to help offer advice. This is where I think New England had the advantage over Washington. The Patriot’s quarterback room in previous years was reported to be very toxic, as Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were at each other’s throats for multiple weeks. When Brian Hoyer, a veteran, was backing up Jones, Jones did some of his best work. Sam Howell had veteran Jacoby Brissett to look up to this year, and this equation seemed to have some success at first but began to become insolvable as coach Ron Rivera began having weekly quarterback competition, and this visibly affected Howell’s confidence. The Patriots realized their mistake and signed Brissett, who became a free agent this offseason. The Commanders do not currently have any veterans in the QB room, and if they don’t end up signing one, a rookie QB may have a hard time adjusting to the NFL without a hand to hold on to in the first weeks of the preseason.
Moving away from the top 3 quarterbacks in the draft, I do want to point out some individuals that I think will get drafted in later rounds. Joe Milton out of Tennessee is a great gunslinging quarterback, and he proved his arm strength at the combine. Michael Penix also has a lot to prove and I think a team can easily draft him and develop him, although he tends to be very inconsistent, so some teams may be wary of him. The biggest quarterback I’m keeping my eyes on, however, is JJ McCarthy. McCarthy, the reigning national champion, had a great combine, and this reflects the fact that he is capable of being a very concrete first-round pick. However, he has a lot more critics than fans. Most critics say that JJ McCarthy’s success comes from the pieces around him, such as Blake Corum. I don’t find these thoughts to be substantial, though, because critics said the same thing about Brock Purdy being a system quarterback, and Purdy went out and balled this season with the 49ers, losing only the second Super Bowl that required overtime.
My final thoughts before wrapping up this article are directed towards the teams at the beginning of the beginning of the draft, whether they are looking to draft a QB or not. It seems that rookie quarterbacks in the NFL have shorter and shorter leashes before they aren’t deemed worthy to start for their teams. Desmond Ridder was given the boot after 2.5 seasons as the Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins. Mac Jones’ starting career was done by week 3 of year 3 with New England. I feel like this one hurts me personally at first because I attribute his ankle injury to Baltimore as the downfall of his career there. Even Justin Fields, who did semi-well in Chicago, was given the boot after three seasons of losing records, even though his stats seemed to improve. Sam Howell was traded away after his first full season! In this day and age, are quarterbacks viewed as easily expendable to the teams that they can just trade them away if things don’t work out? I guess we’ll find out after this draft when the rookies start to perform.
Photo Creds: ESPN
